Adaptive Coupled Physical and Biogeochemical Ocean Predictions: A Conceptual Basis

P.F.J. Lermusiaux1, C. Evangelinos2, R. Tian1, P.J. Haley1, J.J. McCarthy1, N.M. Patrikalakis2, A.R. Robinson1, and H. Schmidt2

1Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.

2Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, U.S.A.

Abstract. Physical and biogeochemical ocean dynamics can be intermittent and highly variable, and involve interactions on multiple scales. In general, the oceanic fields, processes and interactions that matter thus vary in time and space. For efficient forecasting, the structures and parameters of models must evolve and respond dynamically to new data injected into the executing prediction system. The conceptual basis of this adaptive modeling and corresponding computational scheme is the subject of this presentation. Specifically, we discuss the process of adaptive modeling for coupled physical and biogeochemical ocean models. The adaptivity is introduced within an interdisciplinary prediction system. Model-data misfits and data assimilation schemes are used to provide feedback from measurements to applications and modify the runtime behavior of the prediction system. Illustrative examples in Massachusetts Bay and Monterey Bay are presented to highlight ongoing progress.

LNCS 3038, pp. 685-692.

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